That 70's Show

Krugman

But where are the unions demanding 11-percent-a-year wage increases? (Where are the unions, period?) Consumers are worried about inflation, but you have to search far and wide to find workers demanding compensation in the form of higher wages, let alone employers willing to accept those demands. In fact, wage growth actually seems to be slowing, thanks to the weakness of the job market.

And since there isn’t a wage-price spiral, we don’t need higher interest rates to get inflation under control. When the surge in commodity prices levels off — and it will; the laws of supply and demand haven’t been repealed — inflation will subside on its own.

Still, why not raise interest rates a bit, as extra insurance against inflation?

Part of the answer is that the financial crisis, which seems to be in remission right now, could flare up again if money gets more expensive.

And even if the financial crisis doesn’t come back, higher rates would further weaken an already weak real economy. Never mind whether we’re technically in a recession: it feels like a recession to most people, and higher interest rates would make it worse.

The bottom line is that while expensive gas and food are inflicting real harm on American families, they aren’t setting off a ’70s-type inflationary spiral. The only thing we have to fear on that front is inflation fear itself, which could lead to policies that make a bad economic situation worse.